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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although experts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.